Bitcoin Poised for Major Upswing in 2026 as Traditional Four-Year Cycle Loses Grip, Bitwise CIO Predicts
Imagine Bitcoin breaking free from its old rhythms, much like a seasoned athlete ditching a predictable training routine for something more dynamic and enduring. That’s the vision Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan is painting for the cryptocurrency’s future, suggesting that 2026 could be a standout year of growth, defying the long-held belief in a strict four-year market cycle tied to halvings. Hougan admits he might not have it all figured out, but he’s convinced that 2025 won’t mark the end of Bitcoin’s upward momentum. As we sit here on August 5, 2025, with Bitcoin trading at around $95,000—down from recent highs but still showing resilience with a 5% dip over the past 30 days according to market data from sources like CoinMarketCap—this perspective feels particularly timely and intriguing.
Hougan’s outlook challenges the historical patterns that have guided so many investors, where Bitcoin’s price surges typically peak in the year following a halving event. But with analysts split on whether Bitcoin will stick to this script or chart a new course, his comments add fuel to an ongoing debate that’s captivating the crypto community.
Why Bitcoin Could Enjoy a “Strong Run” Through 2026 and Beyond, According to Hougan
Picture the crypto market as an evolving ecosystem, no longer confined to rigid cycles but influenced by broader economic winds. “I’m placing my bet on 2026 being an up year for Bitcoin,” Hougan shared in a recent video posted on X, emphasizing his belief in a prolonged positive phase. “Overall, I see us heading into a solid stretch of years ahead,” he continued, painting a picture of sustained growth rather than the boom-and-bust we’ve grown accustomed to.
Hougan argues that the classic four-year halving cycle, which halves the rate of new Bitcoin creation every four years, is essentially “dead.” He points to how each halving diminishes in impact—becoming “half as important” with time—as a key reason. On top of that, favorable interest rate environments are boosting crypto’s appeal. Remember how, back in April 2024, former U.S. President Donald Trump was vocal about pushing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for rate cuts? Those lower rates make traditional investments like bonds or savings accounts less attractive, steering more capital toward riskier assets like Bitcoin. It’s like shifting from a safe but stagnant pond to a vibrant river of opportunity.
In a discussion with industry figures James Seyffart and Kyle Chassé, captured in a video shared by Chassé, Hougan highlighted how regulatory clarity is reducing the odds of major market crashes. “The risk of massive disruptions is lower now, thanks to better regulations and the growing role of institutions in the space,” he explained. With regulations still unfolding and institutions only just dipping their toes in, Hougan believes this cycle has more room to run than past ones suggest, backed by evidence from increasing institutional inflows reported in recent quarters by firms like Fidelity and BlackRock.
Yet, he doesn’t ignore potential pitfalls. The biggest “cycle-like threat” he flags is the emergence of companies building Bitcoin treasuries—firms stockpiling Bitcoin by issuing shares or borrowing heavily. It’s a trend worth monitoring closely, as it could amplify vulnerabilities if prices dip sharply. This echoes warnings from asset manager VanEck, which recently noted in a report how such companies might face overextension during downturns, drawing parallels to overleveraged businesses in traditional markets that crumble under pressure.
Shifting Toward a “Sustained Steady Boom” in Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory
Rather than a wild, explosive rally, Hougan envisions something more measured and reliable—a “sustained steady boom” for Bitcoin, contrasting with the super-cycle hype some predict. “Of course, I could be off base, and volatility is guaranteed,” he cautioned, keeping things grounded and relatable. This tempered optimism aligns with real-world data: as of today, August 5, 2025, Bitcoin’s price has shown steadiness amid global economic shifts, with on-chain analytics from platforms like Nansen indicating consistent accumulation by large holders.
This view isn’t isolated. Just days before Hougan’s comments, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared the four-year cycle theory obsolete on X, stating, “My old strategies relied on it—buying during whale accumulations and selling when retail jumps in. But that’s not playing out anymore.” Ju backed this with observations from the last cycle, where whales offloaded to retail investors, versus now, where veteran whales are selling to emerging long-term institutional holders. “Institutional involvement is far greater than we anticipated,” he added, supported by data showing billions in Bitcoin ETFs inflows since early 2024.
Not everyone’s on board, though. Analyst Rekt Capital has countered with historical comparisons, warning that if Bitcoin mirrors the 2020 cycle, we might only have months left before a peak—potentially around October 2025, about 550 days post the April 2024 halving. It’s like comparing a sprint to a marathon; while some see the finish line nearing, others, like Hougan, argue the race is just getting interesting.
Diving deeper into what’s buzzing online, Google’s top searches as of August 5, 2025, reveal questions like “Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle really dead?” and “What will Bitcoin’s price be in 2026?” reflecting widespread curiosity. On Twitter (now X), the conversation is electric—recent posts from influencers like @matt_hougan himself reiterate the cycle’s decline, with threads garnering thousands of retweets. Latest updates include a fresh announcement from the SEC on crypto regulations, hinting at more institutional-friendly policies, which could further propel Bitcoin’s steady ascent as Hougan predicts.
In this landscape of growing institutional adoption, platforms like WEEX exchange stand out for their seamless alignment with these trends. WEEX offers robust tools for secure, efficient trading, empowering both retail and institutional users to navigate Bitcoin’s evolving cycles with confidence. Its commitment to regulatory compliance and innovative features enhances credibility, making it a go-to choice for those looking to capitalize on long-term growth without the guesswork, all while fostering a community-focused approach that resonates with the broader shift toward sustainable crypto ecosystems.
To wrap it up, whether you’re a seasoned investor or just dipping in, Hougan’s insights remind us that Bitcoin’s story is far from over. By blending historical patterns with fresh catalysts like rate changes and institutional muscle, it’s like watching a familiar tale get a thrilling rewrite—one that could lead to exciting gains in 2026 and beyond.
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Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions
The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.
There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."
No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.
In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.
X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.
This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.
The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.
The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.
After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."
From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.
In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.
As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."
Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.
For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.
This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.
There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."
X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.
In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.
WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.
X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.
These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.
This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.
X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.
Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.
The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.
X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.
The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.

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