「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent's Long Essay Rebuts Bear Market View: Threefold Bearish Conditions Needed for Confirmation of Bear Market, Current Investor Structure Differs Significantly from 2022
BlockBeats News, January 19, "BTC OG Whale Insider" agent Garrett Jin posted a long article on social media, stating that recently some analysts have compared the current Bitcoin price trend to the 2022 market (bearish). There may be some similarities in the short-term price pattern. However, if we look at the long-term picture, this comparison appears completely absurd.
Garrett Jin explained that the current macro background is completely opposite to that of 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the primary goal of capital was risk aversion, and Bitcoin at that time exhibited a distribution structure at a high point in a tightening cycle. In the current macro environment, the U.S. liquidity index has broken through both short-term and long-term downtrend lines, indicating the emergence of a new uptrend.
In addition, between 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin showed a weekly chart M-top structure, which is usually associated with a long-term cycle top and tends to suppress prices for a long time. However, there is currently a breakout of the weekly chart uptrend channel. From a probability perspective, it now looks more like a bear trap before returning to the channel. Although the possibility of a bear market cannot be ruled out, it must be noted that the $80,850 to $62,000 range has undergone sufficient consolidation and turnover. The previous chip digestion process has provided a better risk-return ratio for long positions: the upside potential is significantly greater than the downside risk.
To restart a bear market, there needs to be a new inflationary shock or a major geopolitical crisis comparable to 2022; central banks restarting rate hikes or asset balance sheet quant tightening; and the price decisively and sustainably falling below $80,850. Before these conditions are met, it is too early to assert a structural bear market, as it is more speculative than analytical.
The biggest difference in the Bitcoin investor structure between the current (early 2026) and 2022 is the shift from retail-dominated, high-leverage speculation to institutional-led, structural long-term holding. In 2022, Bitcoin went through a typical "crypto-native bear market" driven by retail panic selling and cascading liquidations. Bitcoin has now entered a much more mature institutionalized era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked-up supply, and institutional-level volatility.
You may also like

Navigating the Complexities of Cryptocurrency Trading
Cryptocurrency trading has surged, attracting diverse investors. Understanding market strategies and trends is crucial for success. Risk management…

Bitcoin’s Historical Bottom Indicator Points to $62K – Could BTC Fall That Low?
Key Takeaways Bitcoin is nearing a critical support level of \$62,000, with key indicators suggesting potential further declines.…

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Binance Inflows Just Hit a 4-Year Low – Violent Move Above $100K is Next
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin inflows into Binance have dropped to their lowest in four years, potentially signaling a tight…

Russia Caps Crypto Investments at $4,000 Annually for Non-Qualified Investors – Will Others Follow Suit?
Key Takeaways Russia’s proposal sets a $4,000 annual investment limit for non-qualified crypto investors, sparking discussions on regulatory…

Japan’s Metaplanet Announces $137 Million Capital Raise Via Third-Party Allotment
Key Takeaways Japanese firm Metaplanet Inc. has strategized a $137 million capital raising through the third-party allotment of…

Crypto Price Prediction for January 28 – XRP, Solana, Bitcoin
Key Takeaways Bitcoin price recently hit $90,000 but struggled to maintain this peak. XRP and Solana are following…

Sygnum Bank Secures Over 750 BTC for Bitcoin Yield Fund’s Growth
Key Takeaways: Sygnum Bank has raised over 750 BTC in the initial phase of the Starboard Sygnum BTC…

Asia Market Open: Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $88K Amidst Asia’s Tech Slowdown and Gold Surge
Key Takeaways Bitcoin remains stable at nearly $88,000 as Asian tech markets show signs of cooling. Global markets…

Dogecoin Price Prediction: DOGE Founder Reveals True Cause of Crypto Market Downturn
Key Takeaways: The recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market, including Dogecoin, is attributed to shifting investor behavior rather…

US Senators Criticize DOJ Over Crypto Crime Unit Closure Amid Financial Conflict Concerns
Key Takeaways: Six US senators have criticized Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche for shutting down the DOJ’s crypto…

Why Is Crypto Down Today? – January 29, 2026
Key Takeaways The crypto market has fallen by 1.7% over the past 24 hours, with significant declines in…

Bitcoin Retreats as Hawkish Fed and Outflows Pressure Market: Analyst
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin’s value dipped below the $89,000 mark due to restrictive financial conditions and growing geopolitical stress.…

Strive Retires Majority of Debt and Expands Bitcoin Holdings Following Preferred Stock Offering
Key Takeaways: Strive successfully retired 92% of debt inherited from acquiring Semler Scientific, amid a significant preferred stock…

Ethereum Price Prediction: Wall Street Firm Begins to Buy and Lock ETH – Is This Brave or Insane?
Key Takeaways BitMine’s significant investment in Ethereum by securing 4.2 million ETH and staking 2.2 million ETH showcases…

XRP Price Prediction: Price Looks Stagnant – But This Key Signal Just Flashed Green After Months
Key Takeaways Recent indicators suggest a potential bullish trend for XRP, indicating a possible price surge. Traders have…

Bitcoin Is Bouncing – But These 3 Metrics Decide If the Bull Market Is Returning
Key Takeaways Bitcoin’s recent climb towards the high-$90,000 and low-$80,000 ranges signals a partial recovery from significant sell-offs.…

Top Cryptocurrencies to Watch This January: XRP, Cardano, PEPE
Key Takeaways XRP seeks to capitalize on recent ETF approvals to potentially reach $5 in Q1. Cardano aims…
![[LIVE] Crypto News Today: Latest Updates for Jan. 23, 2026 – BTC Slides Below $90K as Crypto Market Extends Broad Sell-Off](https://weex-prod-cms.s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/medium_21_2c30f7df62.png)
[LIVE] Crypto News Today: Latest Updates for Jan. 23, 2026 – BTC Slides Below $90K as Crypto Market Extends Broad Sell-Off
Key Takeaways The crypto market is in a downward trend, with GameFi, AI, and RWA sectors showing some…
Navigating the Complexities of Cryptocurrency Trading
Cryptocurrency trading has surged, attracting diverse investors. Understanding market strategies and trends is crucial for success. Risk management…
Bitcoin’s Historical Bottom Indicator Points to $62K – Could BTC Fall That Low?
Key Takeaways Bitcoin is nearing a critical support level of \$62,000, with key indicators suggesting potential further declines.…
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Binance Inflows Just Hit a 4-Year Low – Violent Move Above $100K is Next
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin inflows into Binance have dropped to their lowest in four years, potentially signaling a tight…
Russia Caps Crypto Investments at $4,000 Annually for Non-Qualified Investors – Will Others Follow Suit?
Key Takeaways Russia’s proposal sets a $4,000 annual investment limit for non-qualified crypto investors, sparking discussions on regulatory…
Japan’s Metaplanet Announces $137 Million Capital Raise Via Third-Party Allotment
Key Takeaways Japanese firm Metaplanet Inc. has strategized a $137 million capital raising through the third-party allotment of…
Crypto Price Prediction for January 28 – XRP, Solana, Bitcoin
Key Takeaways Bitcoin price recently hit $90,000 but struggled to maintain this peak. XRP and Solana are following…