FOMC decision or not, Bitcoin may rally anyway – Here’s why

By: ambcrypto|2025/05/07 17:15:01

Bitcoin outperforms gold and stocks ahead of FOMC, signaling growing safe-haven appeal. Analysts expect a short-term dip, but macro shifts could fuel renewed BTC upside soon. Bitcoin [BTC] remains resilient amid mounting pre-FOMC tension, defying broader market hesitation as traders brace for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming policy update. With interest rates expected to hold steady, analysts are eyeing a potential short-term correction within the next 48 hours. Still, Bitcoin’s sustained outperformance of both gold and the S&P 500 over the past month is reinforcing a growing “up-only” narrative, hinting at deepening investor confidence even in a cautious environment. History suggests pain ahead Since the 1970s, every time the real federal funds rate has exceeded the natural rate of interest significantly, the U.S. economy has either entered a full recession or experienced a growth slowdown. The chart below, based on Jim Paulsen’s analysis , highlights this pattern with striking clarity. Currently, the real rate is well above the neutral rate, mirroring past peaks that came before economic downturns. Source: X President Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the central bank seems set to hold steady at its meeting on the 7th of May. Officials are approaching the decision cautiously, weighing conflicting economic signals—a Q1 GDP contraction against strong April job numbers. However, with Trump’s tariffs introducing new inflationary pressures, the risk of delayed easing may grow. Is Bitcoin the new safe haven? Amid rising uncertainty and Fed policy paralysis, Bitcoin continues to outperform traditional assets. BTC surged over 7% in April, outpacing both gold and the S&P 500, the latter of which remained underwater for much of the month. While gold held steady near 5%, Bitcoin’s rally reflects a growing shift in investor behavior. Source: Crypto Rank With recession risks climbing and equities faltering, Bitcoin appears to be absorbing some capital traditionally reserved for gold or defensive stocks. If rate cuts do materialize later this year, BTC could see renewed upside momentum as liquidity returns and risk appetite broadens. BTC market positioning: “Up-Only” returns or just a pause? Bitcoin remains technically intact despite mild selling pressure ahead of the FOMC. According to analyst Michael Van De Poppe, BTC is holding up “nicely” and may be bottoming out, with a potential low forming between today and tomorrow. The attached chart shows liquidity clustered around the $61.5K-$62.5K range; marked as a crucial re-entry zone if Bitcoin dips further. Source: X After a strong rally in late April, BTC has entered a consolidation, a common pattern ahead of major Fed announcements. Despite this, the broader trend remains intact, and market sentiment is shifting toward a potential easing cycle. If conditions align, the “up-only” thesis could regain momentum quickly. If Bitcoin holds the green zone, bulls could take the charge and push for a continued move higher. Share Share Tweet

On March 4, 2026, DDC Enterprise Limited (NYSE American: DDC) today announced preliminary, unaudited full-year financial performance for the year ended December 31, 2025. The company expects to achieve record revenue and record positive adjusted EBITDA, primarily driven by continued growth in its core consumer food business and overall margin improvement. The final audited financial report is expected to be released in mid-April 2026.

2025 Full-Year Financial Highlights

Revenue: Expected to be between $39 million and $41 million, reaching a new company high.

Organic Growth: Excluding the impact of the company's strategic contraction of its U.S. operations, core revenue is expected to grow 11% to 17% year over year.

Gross Profit Margin: Expected to be between 28% and 30%, reflecting continued operational efficiency improvements.

Adjusted EBITDA: The company expects to achieve a positive full-year result in 2025, a significant improvement from a $3.5 million loss in 2024, mainly due to rigorous cost controls and a higher-margin sales mix.

Core Consumer Food Business Performance

In 2025, DDC's core consumer food business maintained strong operational performance.

The company also disclosed Core Consumer Food Business Adjusted EBITDA, a metric that further excludes costs related to its Bitcoin reserve strategy and non-cash fair value adjustments related to its Bitcoin holdings from adjusted EBITDA to more accurately reflect the core business performance.

In 2025, Core Consumer Food Business Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $5.5 million and $6 million.

Bitcoin Reserve Update

In the first half of 2025, DDC initiated a long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy, holding Bitcoin as its primary reserve asset.

As of December 31, 2025: The company holds 1,183 BTC.

As of February 28, 2026: Holdings increased to 2,118 BTC

Today's additional purchase of 65 BTC brings the company's total holdings to 2,183 BTC

DDC Founder, Chairman, and CEO Norma Chu stated, "We are proud to have closed 2025 with record revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA, demonstrating the steady growth of the company's consumer food business and the ongoing improvement in profitability. We are building a disciplined, growth-oriented food platform and strategically allocating capital to Bitcoin assets with a long-term view, aligning with our core beliefs. We believe that this dual-track model of 'Steady Consumer Business + Strategic Bitcoin Reserve' will help DDC create lasting long-term value for shareholders."

Adjusted EBITDA Definition
For the full year 2025, the company defines "Adjusted EBITDA" (a non-GAAP financial measure) as: Net income / (loss) excluding the following items:· Interest expense· Taxes· Foreign exchange gains/losses· Long-lived asset impairment· Depreciation and amortization· Non-cash fair value changes related to financial instruments (including Bitcoin holdings)· Stock-based compensation

About DDC Enterprise Limited

DDC Enterprise Limited (NYSE: DDC) is actively implementing its corporate Bitcoin Treasury strategy while continuing to strengthen its position as a leading global Asian food platform.

The company has established Bitcoin as a core reserve asset and is executing a prudent, long-oriented accumulation strategy. While expanding its portfolio of food brands, DDC is gradually becoming one of the public company pioneers in integrating Bitcoin into its corporate financial architecture.

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DDC Enterprise Limited Announces 2025 Unaudited Preliminary Financial Performance: Record Revenue Achieved, Bitcoin Treasury Grows to 2183 Coins