Market Prediction Scam "Oracle": 8300x Rug Pull Scheme, the $230K Harvest

Original Title: "Predicting Market Genuine and Fake Gods of Gamblers: Debunking 8,300x Miracle; Price Manipulation Taking $230K"

Original Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

Being a hot track that has continued to rise since the beginning of the year, the prediction market is not lacking in wealth-building miracles.

However, behind these miracles, whether it is a real wonder achieved through seizing the moment and clever maneuvering, or a fake hype created through manipulation and deception, requires the audience to have a discerning eye. Recently, a trader on Platform X posted claiming to have achieved an "8,300x miracle," betting over $10,000 starting from $12, but was soon exposed for engaging in multi-account fraud and artificial promotion; while another trader, by manipulating the price of XRP, took $230,000 in the "15-Minute Price Prediction" section, pulling off a one-way harvest on the betting bots on Polymarket.

On the stage of betting on the outcome, some want to dance with lies, while others take advantage of loopholes to seize fortunes. In the game of truth and falsehood, there is no undefeated strategy, only flexible tactics.

From $12 to $100,000, an 8,300x Miracle: Polymarket's Calling Card vs. Trader's Fraudulent Scheme

On January 16, the trader ascetic posted, stating that through a "all-in on Bitcoin's short-term volatility," doubling the capital 16 times in a row, finally achieving a milestone achievement of turning $12 into $100,000 in profit. At the same time, they emphasized that during the betting process, they "also specifically shared their betting strategy and the reasons behind it."

Subsequently, they posted their Polymarket account link in the comments and bluntly stated that such a wealth-building miracle can only be staged on Polymarket.

The comments section then saw a "Polymarket community blood-boiling celebration," with countless people congratulating them, even Polymarket's Global Growth Lead LeGate commented, "Congratulations, bro! I think you deserve it! Congratulations on receiving the PolymarketTrade badge!" (This account is an active trader community account on Polymarket)

If you thought this would be a typical "overnight get-rich-quick style show-off tweet," then you may have underestimated the extent of the matter.

Suddenly, the wind of the "8300x Return Miracle on Polymarket" event took a sharp turn.

From Betting Miracle to Fraudulent Scheme: 8300x Return Data Questioned

On January 16, trader Moses, who claimed to be "Polymarket's 515th ranked trader for 2025," posted questioning the account data of trader ascetic, saying, "Have you ever wondered why his account balance was $3000 in the first post? The answer is simple: he was running a large 'witch farm.' He didn't start from $12 but from hundreds of accounts, each investing $10 to $20. Once one of the accounts reached $2900, he started sharing information. Since then, he made seven trades, all winning.

But please note that he bet the entire balance each time. A real trader wouldn't do that. He was just chasing fame, using any means to achieve his goal.

As he failed to get enough volume, he even seemed to use other accounts for fake trades to achieve the desired price.

Before blindly trusting a 'internet celebrity,' be sure to do your own research. The image attached shows some of his failed witch accounts, which earned a maximum of only $1000.

Subsequently, Moses added in the comments section that all accounts were created seven months ago and consistently participated in random markets, with all accounts starting the same challenge on the same day two months ago. The entire 'From $10 to $100,000' claim is false!

Furthermore, he posted screenshots and links to the corresponding witch accounts' profiles:

· Account One: https://polymarket.com/@brockmatthew;

· Account Two: https://polymarket.com/@wellscandice;

· Account Three: https://polymarket.com/@jbryan.

Although ascetic later responded in the comments section that the wallet and account mentioned by Moses were not related to them, and some members of the ZSC DAO (a community of Polymarket traders) also voiced their support, stating that Moses was a victim of a cyberattack, the connection between the content of ascetic's previous tweet and an account with a similar pattern of behavior to their Polymarket account still significantly undermines the credibility of this "8300x ROI miracle."

Some in the comments section also mentioned the difficulty in understanding why Moses would take such actions, considering that achieving "7 consecutive successful bets" is already quite impressive; however, others later pointed out that this was still a "game of bot-like widespread betting."

Of course, somewhat ironically, Moses's personal bio also includes the tagline of his "journey from $1 to $1 million," whether this is a true achievement or a personal goal remains unknown.

Compared to ascetic, whose authenticity is hard to determine, the case of the individual who profited $230,000 through price manipulation in the XRP "15-minute price prediction market" on Binance may be more worth studying for whale players.

Trader Exploits Binance Spot Market Price Reversal Prediction Market: Turns $1 Million Principal into $230,000 Profit

On January 18, Polymarket trader PredictTrader posted revealing a trading operation akin to a theatrical version of "The Wolf of Wall Street"—by harvesting trading bot liquidity, he made $233,000 in just a few hours, all without sparking widespread market attention.

This trader, named a4385, chose a particularly opportune moment to strike—it was a Saturday night, with low market liquidity and relatively modest Binance spot order book depth.

In a trade titled "XRP Price Action—January 17, 12:45-1:00 PM EST," he heavily bought the "up" side.

His counterpart was the common "retail liquidity provider" on Polymarket—various trading bots. By the 10-minute mark of the trade, XRP had dropped around 0.3% from the opening price, but he had already pushed the "up" side to 70%. Seeing a profit opportunity, the trading bots fell into the trader's pre-set "price trap" instead of trading against him, ultimately selling more "up" side chips to him.

Ultimately, the trader bought the "up" chips totaling $77,000 at 48% average price.

And just 2 minutes before the settlement of this bet, a wallet on Binance bought around $1 million worth of XRP spot, causing its price to rise by about 0.5%; a few seconds after the settlement of the betting event, this $1 million spot was rapidly sold off.

In other words, the cost of this price manipulation event was—about a 0.25% one-way trade slippage + fee.

Using a Binance VIP level 4 account (0.06%) (easily obtained) and a 0.25% two-way slippage, the total cost was about $6,200, with the actual operational cost possibly lower. By repeating the same operation multiple times, coupled with the weekend liquidity gap, the trader managed to drain funds from several bot wallets.

Some bots were promptly shut down, while others did not react quickly enough and lost all their funds—including @aleksandmoney, which lost its entire year's profit (about $160,000).

a4385 Polymarket account link: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x506bce138df20695c03cd5a59a937499fb00b0fe

At the end of the article, it is hoped that traders who bet on both sides in the prediction markets and engage in passionate battles can distinguish between fact and appearance. Sometimes, the truth is not always objective, while the standards and rules set by the platform are artificially defined.

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