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Option Trader Expects S&P 500 Index to Hover Around 7000 by Year End
BlockBeats News, October 31st. The U.S. stock market once again saw a strong performance this year, but from the derivative market's perspective, the momentum may be limited. Options bets on the S&P 500 index at the end of December are concentrated around 7000 points. If this round number is reached, it would mean a 19% increase in the index by 2025. However, this is only a 2.5% distance from Thursday's closing of 6,822.34 points, with two months left in the year.
Although Wall Street overall remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market outlook, cautious reasons still exist. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that a third rate cut is far from certain. Earnings reports from tech giants have raised concerns about the outlook for AI spending. Signs of an economic slowdown are emerging, and cracks are beginning to appear in the higher-risk parts of the credit market, casting doubt on the health of U.S. consumers. In addition, the majority of the S&P 500 index's gains have been contributed by a few select stocks, a worrisome phenomenon that could put pressure on the market once these heavyweight stocks weaken.
Some strategists began to lower their optimistic expectations after Powell's speech on Wednesday, even though the last two months of the year usually exhibit seasonally strong performance. However, a more common explanation is that investors tend to concentrate their positions around round numbers. Gateway Investment Advisors investment strategist Ferrara stated: "The 7,000 point strike price is a very popular psychological level." (Jinse)
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