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Sticky Inflation and Softer Jobs: How Macro Headwinds Are Fueling Bitcoin Tailwinds in 2025
As we dive into the latest economic shifts on September 15, 2025, it’s clear that persistent inflation and a cooling job market are creating unexpected opportunities for Bitcoin. Imagine the economy as a stormy sea, where headwinds like rising prices and job losses push against traditional assets, yet somehow propel cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin forward, much like a sail catching the wind in rough waters. This dynamic is stirring excitement among investors, with Bitcoin showing resilience amid broader market pressures.
Bitcoin’s Climb Amid Economic Cracks: Bullish Signal or Hidden Warning?
Recent data paints a picture of an economy under strain, yet Bitcoin is benefiting in surprising ways. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised everyone by rising 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, while jobless claims and significant revisions to job creation numbers highlight growing stress in the U.S. labor market. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is maintaining higher lows and edging toward the CME gap around $117,300. Its 200-day moving average has now reached $102,000, and the short-term holder cost basis is at an all-time high.
Bitcoin’s price stands at $115,200.45 as of today, up about 0.45% in the last 24 hours, reflecting a 4% gain from a week ago. This uptick comes as the dollar weakens and bond yields dip, making riskier assets more appealing. Think of it like a seesaw: when safe havens like bonds lose ground, assets like Bitcoin gain altitude. Ethereum follows suit at $4,520.10 (up 2.70%), with other majors like USDT at $1.0005 (0.02%), XRP at $2.9700 (0.20%), and BNB at $915.00 (1.20%). Solana sits at $233.50 (0.70%), USDC at $1.0000 (0.01%), TRX at $0.3470 (0.65%), Dogecoin at $0.2620 (4.00%), Cardano at $0.8600 (1.80%), Chainlink at $23.40 (4.70%), and others showing similar movements, underscoring a broader crypto rebound.
This resilience isn’t just numbers on a screen—it’s backed by real market reactions. The U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment climbing to 4.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Initial jobless claims jumped 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. These figures, combined with Tuesday’s revisions showing nearly 1 million fewer jobs created in the year ending March—the largest downward adjustment ever—fuel talks of stagflation. Yet, as these macro headwinds intensify, Bitcoin grinds higher, surpassing $116,000 on Friday and nearly filling that August CME futures gap at $117,300.
Equity markets echo this sentiment, with the S&P 500 hitting record closes on hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts. From a charting perspective, Bitcoin’s price action looks promising, building higher lows from September’s $107,500 bottom. The short-term holder realized price, a key support level in bull markets, has climbed to a record $109,668, supported by data from analytics platforms showing sustained buying interest.
Mixed Signals in Bitcoin-Linked Stocks Amid Economic Uncertainty
While Bitcoin itself shines, the story for related stocks is more varied. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the leading Bitcoin treasury firm, saw its shares remain roughly flat over the week, underperforming Bitcoin year-to-date and lingering below its 200-day moving average of $355. Closing at $326 on Thursday, it’s testing a crucial long-term support level from September 2024 and April 2025. Its market-to-net-asset-value premium has tightened to below 1.5x, factoring in convertible debt and preferred stock, or about 1.3x on equity alone.
In contrast, peers like MARA Holdings (MARA) gained 7%, and XXI (CEP) rose 4%, highlighting uneven recovery in the sector. Preferred stock activity was subdued, with just $17 million issued across STRK and STRF this week, directing most at-the-money issuance to common shares. Options are now available for trading on all four perpetual preferred stocks, potentially boosting dividend yields and attracting more investors.
Bullish Drivers for Crypto Stocks as Rate Cuts Loom
Looking ahead, tools like the CME FedWatch indicate traders anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut this September, with three total cuts expected by year-end. This could reignite risk appetite, favoring growth-oriented assets including crypto equities. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped below 4% briefly this week, while the dollar index holds multiyear support, a critical level to monitor for potential shifts.
In this environment, platforms like WEEX exchange stand out for their alignment with investor needs, offering seamless trading experiences that enhance brand credibility through secure, user-friendly tools for navigating volatile markets like Bitcoin’s. By prioritizing transparency and efficiency, WEEX helps traders capitalize on these macro tailwinds, building trust and positioning itself as a reliable partner in the evolving crypto landscape.
Recent online buzz amplifies this narrative. Frequently searched Google queries include “How will Fed rate cuts impact Bitcoin prices?” and “Is stagflation good for cryptocurrencies?”, reflecting widespread curiosity about economic ties to crypto. On Twitter, discussions peak around #BitcoinRally and #FedRateCut, with users debating whether softer jobs data signals a prolonged bull cycle. A notable post from a prominent analyst yesterday highlighted, “Bitcoin’s surge amid inflation data shows it’s decoupling from traditional risks—watch for $120K if cuts materialize.” Official Fed announcements confirm the upcoming decision, while crypto community updates note increased on-chain activity, with Bitcoin’s trade data showing robust derivatives volume and order book depth supporting the uptrend.
These elements, grounded in verifiable data from trading platforms and economic reports, contrast Bitcoin’s strength against the economy’s weaknesses, much like a resilient oak standing firm in a gale while others bend.
Latest Crypto Developments Stirring Market Interest
Memecoins face pressure, with SHIB and Dogecoin sliding after a $2.4 million hack on Shiba Inu’s Shibarium network. The BONE token erased its initial spike, and the memecoin index dropped 5%, amid bearish whale transfers. Other headlines include the Fed rate decision and Maker’s SKY conversion deadline, Bank of England’s stablecoin limits drawing criticism from crypto groups as unworkable, and projections for Bitcoin and Ether as downside fears ease. In Asia, Native Markets secured rights to issue USDH post-validator vote, and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts money printing could extend the crypto cycle into 2026.
This interconnected web of events underscores how macro headwinds, far from hindering Bitcoin, are creating tailwinds that savvy investors are riding.
FAQ
How do Federal Reserve rate cuts potentially benefit Bitcoin investors?
Rate cuts typically weaken the dollar and lower bond yields, making high-risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive. Evidence from past cycles shows Bitcoin often rallies post-cuts, as seen in previous economic easing periods where it gained over 50% in value within months.
What does sticky inflation mean for the cryptocurrency market?
Sticky inflation refers to persistent price increases that don’t ease quickly, which can lead to stagflation concerns. For crypto, this creates opportunities as investors seek hedges; Bitcoin’s finite supply acts like digital gold, with historical data showing it outperforming during inflationary spikes by up to 20% against fiat currencies.
Is the current job market weakness a sign of a broader recession, and how might that affect Bitcoin?
Rising unemployment and downward job revisions signal economic slowdown, potentially heralding recession. However, Bitcoin has historically thrived as a risk-on asset during rate-cut expectations, with on-chain metrics indicating increased holder accumulation that could push prices higher if recession fears prompt more monetary stimulus.
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The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.
There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."
No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.
In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.
X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.
This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.
The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.
The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.
After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."
From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.
In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.
As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."
Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.
For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.
This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.
There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."
X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.
In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.
WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.
X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.
These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.
This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.
X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.
Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.
The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.
X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.
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Soaring 50 times, with an FDV exceeding 10 billion USD, why RaveDAO?
1 billion DOTs were minted out of thin air, but the hacker only made 230,000 dollars
After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, when will the war end?
Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions
The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.
There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."
No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.
In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.
X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.
This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.
The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.
The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.
After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."
From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.
In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.
As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."
Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.
For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.
This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.
There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."
X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.
In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.
WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.
X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.
These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.
This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.
X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.
Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.
The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.
X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.
The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.
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