Who Will Be the Biggest Winner of the x402 Trillion Race?
Original Title: Who Will Accrue the Most Value in the x402 Race?
Original Author: Yash
Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
The x402 is now approaching its shining moment, referred to by a16z as a $30 trillion market.
As someone who has been following x402 since its inception, I began to ponder: if this market is truly massive, who will emerge as the biggest winner?
This article will not explain what x402 is, but will instead analyze its value accumulation and adoption from a practical standpoint.
The core value of x402 is to enable every API call to act as a payment transaction. Simply put, every button click can turn into a microtransaction.
x402 is not a technological innovation; it can be fully achieved through blockchain transactions. All the constraints of blockchain transactions, such as Gas fees, wallets, etc., equally apply to x402.
However, as a payment standard, it is powerful because it is compatible with the HTTPS protocol, enabling the entire Internet to support payment functionality.
Like all payment systems, x402 has four main stakeholders:
· API Sellers (Suppliers)
· API Buyers (Demanders)
· Intermediaries
· Underlying Chain and Tokens
1. Sellers (Suppliers)
Primarily divided into two categories:
· First-party / Second-party sellers (such as @switchboardxyz selling proprietary pricing data)
· Third-party sellers (such as selling @heliuslabs' RPC service through an API proxy)
For the first category of sellers, once the demand is significant, they have every reason to support x402, as it can help them tap into new markets.
For example, The New York Times could make its website x402-enabled, requiring web scraping bots to pay for access, thereby creating a new revenue stream.
Or when a platform like Airbnb supports x402, @perplexity_ai's AI agent can directly pay with USDC and automatically receive a commission in the same transaction.
The second type of seller often becomes an "API marketplace," integrating various APIs to provide users with convenient payment methods. Their profit model is arbitrage, such as paying a $20 fixed fee per month and then charging $0.0001 per call.
In the short term, intermediaries are motivated to build API marketplaces to solve the cold start problem (like @corbits_dev).
For sellers, the immediate opportunity is to upgrade existing APIs or websites to support x402, gaining additional revenue and traffic from network effects.
2. Buyer (Demand Side)
API consumers, especially "AI agents." Any user or agent with a wallet can pay API fees through x402.
This is the most challenging part of the entire chain to kickstart. It can be said that the current real demand is almost zero (most are spam transactions).
Stimulating demand has two avenues:
· Sellers exclusively provide data through x402 (e.g., a news website only allows paid crawling through x402)
· Provide enough APIs supporting x402 for agents and applications to easily use
I believe the key driver could be @Cloudflare (a member of the x402 Foundation, particularly focused on pay-per-request crawling). As the world's largest edge network/CDN service provider, Cloudflare deeply controls the distribution of network traffic (including APIs, content, and services).
They only need to flip a switch to enable x402 for specific content, allowing developers to earn additional revenue. (I guess it will initially be exclusive to Coinbase/Base, supporting NET USD payments).

I have even conceptualized the interface design for Cloudflare to implement this functionality.
Business agents (such as ChatGPT, Shopify, etc.) will become the primary demand drivers for x402.
Important Note: Many people mistakenly believe that x402 can be transacted without a wallet, but x402 is not magic. It still fundamentally requires a wallet and blockchain transaction (including Gas fees), it's just that these elements are abstracted or can be batched off-chain through API calls.
3. Intermediaries
Similar to Visa and Mastercard, they route payments between API buyers and sellers. They usually charge a fee of 0-25 basis points (currently mostly free), but this is bound to be a price war as the barrier to entry for setting up intermediaries is low.
While Visa/Mastercard have strong moats, x402 intermediaries have almost no moat at all because the real network effects are all accumulated at the base layer blockchain. Large companies like Cloudflare or Google could easily launch their own intermediaries on chains like Solana or Base within a day, given they control the user interface.
Giants like Coinbase may even open-source and offer intermediary services for free to further squeeze profit margins in order to promote ecosystem growth.

Some of the major x402 intermediaries currently include: @CoinbaseDev, @x402rs, and @PayAINetwork.
4. Public Chains and Tokens
As a key project of @coinbase, @base (and USDC) is naturally the most prominent chain. However, other public chains like @SolanaFndn (host of the x402 hackathon) are also making a strong push.
All stablecoins and public chains will strive for dominance in x402 since this directly boosts on-chain TVL (by increasing stablecoin lock-up and transaction volume).
It will be interesting to see how stablecoin chains like @tempo and @arc integrate x402 into enterprise development toolkits.
In my view, public chains, tokens, and wallets will capture the most value in the x402 ecosystem.
Coinbase and @brian_armstrong's vigorous promotion of x402 is for a reason. Coinbase controls the entire tech stack:
· Custodial Data Provider (CDP)
· Mainnet (Base)
· Stablecoin (USDC)
· Wallet (Base App and Coinbase Embedded Wallet)
They can directly provide end-to-end solutions to enterprise clients (such as Cloudflare, Vercel) while keeping the core protocol open-source.

Base is currently far ahead, but it's just the beginning.
Large companies like Stripe are likely to launch their own x402-like protocols or run x402 payments on their private chains (such as @tempo). Additionally, on chains like @solana or @base, large-scale micropayments are currently not economical.
For example, on Solana, due to base fee + priority fee, any payment below $0.1 is not cost-effective, and payment transactions need to compete for resources with speculative transactions (such as Memecoin exchanges). I admire Tempo's design, which provides a dedicated channel for payment transactions.
It is foreseeable that with the widespread adoption of x402, there will definitely be sidechains / appchains / Rollup solutions specifically for handling x402 payments.
Capture of Value by Interfaces and Wallets
It goes without saying that the party that controls traffic entry and user interfaces will capture the most value, whether it is a platform / marketplace, AI chat application, AI browser, and so on.
In the internet domain, browsers occupy most user attention and are naturally suitable for integrating x402 and controlling the wallet layer.
Imagine a Chrome browser with a native built-in wallet, where every click could trigger x402 payments. Any API only needs to pass through a secure whitelist review to complete payments directly when needed.
Browsers can easily collect a 0.05% transaction fee, and users are willing to pay for convenience.
However, Stripe is x402's biggest competitor!

For example, the largest consumer AI application ChatGPT announced the implementation of its business functions through @Stripe. Stripe has its own Agent Commerce Protocol (ACP) and processes payments on existing credit card networks through shared payment tokens.
x402 and Dynamic Resource Pricing
x402 excels at handling fixed pricing (such as "0.001 USD per API call"), but it has failed to fully realize the true potential of blockchain: creating a market for everything.
I believe x402's uniqueness lies in achieving a "resource market." These resources can be:
· Data or results (such as price, news)
· Computing power or specific operational reasoning (such as booking a flight)
· Complex workflows (such as a custom chair)
· Priority services (such as time slots or reserved bandwidth)
Historically, market mechanisms have solved the information coordination problem, with prices naturally reflecting supply and demand.
Now, imagine a future where you tell an AI agent, "Customize a chair for me based on these specifications for $500."
This agent autonomously coordinates multiple resources: procuring wood, hiring a carpenter, arranging delivery—all automated, completely solving the resource coordination problem.
Thanks to large language models and AI agents, we now have machines capable of reasoning and negotiating throughout the entire supply chain. This will drive hyper-monetization, dynamic market formation, real-time pricing for every resource and action, with AI agents seamlessly transacting and paying behind the scenes.
Although x402 itself does not support dynamic pricing, blockchains like Solana can through permissionless market creation mechanisms.
Imagine if every Airbnb host had a dynamic market, where prices are no longer fixed by hosts but entirely determined by market demand. This is the world we are moving towards.
x402 Development Prospects
I look forward to x402 and the endless possibilities it brings.
However, it has indeed been overhyped, and if you're looking to invest in x402 tokens, 99% of them are just vaporware.
Despite my short-term skepticism, I am extremely optimistic in the long run: x402 will undoubtedly become the foundational technology of the agent-based internet and be deeply integrated into the crypto network.
x402 reminds me of Solana Blinks, where every click could trigger a Solana transaction, although Blinks failed to take off back then.
But this time is different. We have the giant @coinbase leading the way, and if successful, we will forever change the way payments work on the internet!
Summary
The party controlling the flow of traffic onboarding and the user interface (as well as the asset/mainchain) stands to gain the most value in the x402 ecosystem. This is why Coinbase is going all-in, as it owns the end-to-end full tech stack.)
The SendAI team (especially @_0xaryan) has been closely following x402 developments since May 2025 and has actively collaborated with @vercel to contribute to the x402-mcp project (which added @solana support for a specific use case).
In the future, we will integrate the entire x402 tech stack into broader infrastructure and applications.
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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
(IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
(X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
(XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
(XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
(XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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